Twenty Thousand

Apparently Ebola Viral Disease (EVD) was "invited" into Sierra Leone in May 2014 by a healer living in a border village in the Kenema District. That healer, it is reported, claimed that she was able to cure the disease. A little boy, across the border in Guinea, sick with the infection, took her on her word and presented himself at her door. It is here, it is believed, that it all began. Both patient and healer subsequently died, and the rest, as they say, is history. 

Now, right in front of our eyes people are dying everywhere. The disease seems beyond control and still, no definitive treatment is available. And, looking at the trend of new cases during the month of August in Sierra Leone, it is easy to see that the projection of 20,000 cases in 6 months is not fanciful.

According to the Sierra Leone Ministry of Health's daily Ebola updates, there have been, on average, 16 new cases a day, with a case fatality rate (CFR) of between 36 and 40 percent. The surviving 60- 65 percent almost certainly have a message for us in their survival. But it is likely a while before we can decode that message. For now we are trapped in this catastrophe that is so awful that the authorities have had to resort to medieval measures. The President of Sierra Leone on July 30 ordered that "epicenters" of the disease be quarantined and that localities and homes where disease is identified be quarantined also. In addition, he ordered house-to-house surveillance and searches to trace and quarantine suspected Ebola victims. Wow!

To be sure, the authorities can argue the case for such measures. The history of quarantine is probably longer than we realize. Although I can find no biblical references (my usual source for ancient history), quarantine was a measure applied as early as the 14th century in Europe during the Black Death's reign of terror. Then, ship passengers arriving from Asia were not allowed to disembark at European ports until they showed no evidence of the plague. The duration of that quarantine was set at 40 days. (If you know Italian, you will be able to see the connection). The tactic may not have been that effective because the epidemic raged on across the continent for a decade and a half.

But could quarantining for Ebola be a good idea? Only if it is total. A total quarantine requires draconian measures that could impinge on civil liberties, creating new problems of its own. Anyway, no quarantine procedure can be truly total. So the spread from one region to the other continues. 

So, can we avoid reaching that 20,000 peak? Or to a number even beyond? But whatever number is reached, there has to be a proportionate number of healthcare workers to treat, manage and comfort the afflicted.

What can the rest of us do to help their work?

Tell Fren Tru