Is It Out of Control?

In Liberia, the Ebola situation appears to be easing, while in Sierra Leone things seem to be getting worse. It is not clear why the numbers should be diverging in these two closely-related countries. 

Many factors contribute to Ebola statistics. We must assume, first off, that those publishing the numbers are beyond the temptation of massaging them. That said, there are many other ways in which figures can be subject to error. For example, those who enumerate may not be able to do so accurately because humans are tricky creatures with minds of their own: they may hide, dissemble or otherwise make life difficult for the canvasser. Thus, final numbers must always be regarded as tentative, even when conditions are normal.

When things are as chaotic as they tend to be in the hothouse atmosphere that is Ebola, counting can be even less reliable. Besides, Ebola, in itself, is rather tricky. First off, we know very little about it in spite of the noisy declarations of “experts” and amateurs alike concerning its origin, infectivity, clinical manifestations and natural history. As for individuals afflicted by the disease, they find themselves in totally uncharted territory. They have no idea what is happening to them or what their eventual fate would be. They are petrified and their behaviour tends to the unpredictable. Some drift around and others may even cross borders without respect for immigration formalities.

Those who treat Ebola patients are also quite stressed and, sometimes, are confused too. Whether in America, Spain or in the disease’s epicentre there is lack of cogency. Rules are made up on the trot, and at the height of the confusion everything is likely to be slapped into quarantine on sight. Even unsuspecting dogs may be put down, a fate to which humans appear at some risk on return to their home country, judging by the shrillness among some sections of the media.

It is easy enough to mock these antics. But in countries where Ebola disease does exist, it is no laughing matter. The outlook is grim. Pundits worry that not enough is being done and dread the possibility of a pandemic. Why this anxiety? Is it because there is incompetence? Or malfeasance? Many are convinced that the latter is the case. They could see no reason why the problem should be so intractable when so much money is being thrown at it. It should have gone away by now, shouldn’t it? But it hasn’t. So there has to be some dodgy doings. “Follow the money,” they say. Money, in this case, is not an enabler, but rather a spoiler, a temptation too strong for the moral resolve of those in charge.

So Ebola remains wrapped up in all manner of theories and speculations. Money disappearing into the wrong channels is just part of that mix. However, as for the case of the origin of the epidemic, I remain, for the present, sceptical.

Eleven months down the line, we are beyond the shock and surprise that the epidemic chose West Africa to descend on in 2014 (2013, if you like). Also, for now, let us suspend recrimination over who or what did or did not do what when Ebola first struck. What is needed now is a ramping up of resources, human and non-human, local and international, for full engagement with a foe that gives no quarter.

Once the emergency is over, there will be time enough for an accounting.

Tell Fren Tru

Americans. Don’t you just love them.

America is a peculiar place. 

         Its land is vast with a population of over 300 million, enjoying the highest GDP on earth. The average American has an annual income of over $66,000. (We need not bother our heads over how this income is distributed). Suffice it to say that this is a per capita income that is exceeded by only a handful of tiny sheikdoms producing lots of oil, plus a few small European countries skilled in the management of secret money owned by extremely wealthy individuals. 

         Forty-two percent of Americans have a college education, bettered only by Canada (Number 1) and a few other OECD countries. America’s dominance in educating its people is underscored by the fact that 7 of their universities are among the 10 best in the world. It is well to note too that, in America, there are about 25 doctors for every 10,000 population; put in another way, every doctor registered to practice medicine in America has, on average, only 400 individuals to look after.  

          You may already be wondering where all this is leading. Well, the conclusion that any reasonable person would draw from this snapshot of Americana is that the land flows with milk and money. Sorry, honey. Enough honey to, at least, sweeten the temperament and lubricate neural circuits responsible for clear thinking. But most disappointingly, the country seems to fall down every time it is called upon to lead the world in rational thinking. Every time, before and since one of their greatest ever presidents asserted that the only thing that they have to fear is fear itself, Americans have consistently shown a fearfulness that is almost primal. They have been afraid to escape from the bonds of slavery; they have feared Japanese-Americans during World War II; they have dreaded communist bogeymen under the bed during the Cold War; they went wild with fear during the early stages of the HIV/AIDS epidemic; Al Qaida petrified them to the point of incoherence (but that, you might say was a GW thing); and in 2014, Al Qaida’s progeny, ISIL leaves America quivering. And this year also, America is gripped by fear just because of a single case of Ebola entering their pristine realm. 

        Why, you may ask, is America not using all its valuable assets to inform public debate and policy about Ebola? Instead, what we see is a shambolic media and political show concerning the remote possibility of Ebola threatening the American way of life.

To be honest with you, I feel totally let down by these antics because I had believed that Ebola's spread in West Africa was due partly to a lack of public literacy in a region where factors of well-being are orders of magnitude lower than in America.

          There is no upside to this type of paranoia. But downsides are many. Not the least of these is the prevailing view that Americans going to West Africa to help control Ebola there may not be allowed to integrate back into their community when they return home. It should be clear to all that if Americans are prevented from returning to the bosom of their loved ones there is no way they would want to go to the region where help is most needed. Is this what America really wants? 
      Please tell me it is not so.

 Tell Fren Tru