Missing In Istanbul

When I last wrote, it was about the international silence that followed the Saudi response to a tweet that came out of the Office of the Canadian Ministry of Foreign Affairs which condemned the restrictions placed on human rights in the kingdom. That response was so extreme that it apparently cowed into silence even Canada’s staunchest allies, especially those who claim to espouse virtues of human rights.  My assessment then was that that lack of response was a result of cowardice most likely induced by dread of potential loss of commercial ground in the arms trafficking business. In the case of America, arms trade with the kingdom is worth a colossal one hundred and ten billion. That was straight out of the mouth of the president himself. Britain, Canada’s other main ally is also a big trafficker in arms to Saudi Arabia to the extent that, since 2008, 15 billion dollars have accrued to that other kingdom.

         So, the two principal arms dealers to the Saudi kingdom bank profits that usually come from trading dodgy commodities, profits large enough to keep human rights credentials in suspended animation. The Slave Trade is probably the most notorious example of that route to national wealth. But that is another story.  It was no surprise, therefore, that neither Britain, nor the United States, found the bottle to call out their Saudi clients when Canada’s interests were on the line just a few weeks ago. Human rights did not matter. But the consequences of such dereliction can be predicted. The more you derelict, the more likely it is that perpetrators will be emboldened, and it was only a matter of time before the Saudis would attempt another and an even more shocking atrocity, as alleged.

         So now we see the image of Jamal Al Khashoggi entering the gates of the Saudi Arabian Consulate in Istanbul, played and replayed, and him not coming out afterwards, whilst his fiancée waits faithfully outside, a most tragic image, if ever there was one. What happened to Khashoggi in that Consulate compound? Speculation is rife. Was he killed there by a team of hitmen sent from Riyadh and, even more gruesome, was his body butchered like that much cattle carcass? The denials from Riyadh have been angry, claiming that the alleged hit team were just tourists (where have we heard that one before?). And, predictably, the response from Saudi Arabia’s arms suppliers have been muted. President Trump uttered the weasel words that there is no evidence yet of Saudi complicity but that if any emerged, he would have to consider “punishment”. But he reminds us that there is a great deal at stake amounting to the one hundred and ten billion dollars that was referred to earlier. Thousands of American jobs hinge on this deal and jeopardizing it could impede that grand ambition to make America great again. There is a delicious irony in the making as MAGA becomes a creature of Saudi largesse.

         The Brits are also now delicately pussyfooting around the issue and, seeking safety in numbers, have banded with the French and Germans to call on the Saudis to agree to an investigation, “if they have nothing to hide”.

         Policies are of course made by governments, among whom may be individuals with their own vested interests. Canada’s former ambassador to Saudi Arabia – the one who was expelled in the summer while he was on leave outside the kingdom, Dennis Horak- has now retired from the diplomatic service and, freed from civil service restraints, regrets that things have come to such a pass between the Saudi kingdom and Canada. Now that he is retired, he is bemoaning, on national TV, the tweet from his ministry that started the imbroglio of a few short weeks ago. He sees himself as collateral damage , in that no corporation would now consider him for a position on their board because his name is now toxic in Saudi business circles. Poor man. Cant blame him. None of us was prepared for that turn of events.

         We just have to wait and see.

Tell Fren Tru

A Deafening Silence

A few days ago, Saudi Arabia unleashed a barrage of measures against Canada because the country’s Foreign Minister, Chrystia Freeland had, in the preceding days, called out the Saudi government for arresting a female Saudi human rights activist.

         Perhaps no one should have been surprised that the kingdom would have been so irritated, especially when the offender was a woman, and a foreign one at that and, worse still, over the issue of women’s rights: ("Three Strikes You're Out"). But for MBS, the prince in charge, to have thrown such a massive tantrum and start chucking his toys out of the pram is, well, more than just petulant. It is not as if he can pretend that Saudi Arabia’s treatment of its women has always been exemplary (which country’s has?)  and that this recent affair was an outlier. Besides, the country has, implicitly, if not explicitly, criticized itself on the way it governs by some recent policy correctives. Be that as it may, the treatment of women in Saudi Arabia remains unequal, with many examples of limitation in their personal freedom. The Saudis themselves recognized the absurdity of forbidding their womenfolk to drive, for example, although, intriguingly, in an interesting inversion of the usual dynamic between town and country, women could freely drive in the remote villages and desert encampments.

         Ultimately, the country has had to concede that women not being allowed to drive was an absurdity that could not be sustained in this 21^st century and that policy was, therefore, put to rest a couple of months ago. Well, the world didn’t stop turning. Phew! The granting of the right to drive is an acknowledgment that they had got it wrong all along, but instead of going quietly into the night, there was no reserve in the way they heaped loud praise and congratulations on themselves, apparently unaware of the irony.

         So, having gone this far, what’s the big deal about an appeal for the release of a woman detained for expressing the wish to see the granting of other rights? Could it be that this particular case, that of the Badawi siblings, brother Raif, and sister, Samar, is a particularly touchy one for the Saudis? Raif’s wife and children have sought and gained political asylum in Canada where they remain safe and secure, and from where they launch demands that their husband and father be released from detention in their native land. Now, for sister, Samar, to initiate agitation on her own is probably stretching Saudi patience a bit too far. So, she too, was promptly detained (again) and hence, the tweet from Global Affairs Canada that caused so much annoyance.

         I lived in Saudi Arabia during the decades spanning the eighties to the noughties, so I do have some knowledge of life in the country. However, I must emphasize the qualifier, “some”, because, even after all those years, that knowledge remains superficial. The reason for that superficiality is, I believe, at least in part, a result of my not managing to learn to speak or read Arabic. Despite all of that, some of the mistakes they make are pretty obvious.

         Another recent example of the mysterious way in which things happen in Saudi Arabia is the arrest and detention, albeit in the most splendid of circumstances, of a raft of public figures including princes, former ministers and some business elites over accusations of corruption. In most countries, such arrests would be deemed unconstitutional and therefore, illegal. Can you imagine such happening in Canada, or the UK or America, even in these days of a near-dystopian White House? No, you can’t. 

         So, what happens next in this Canada affair? After the students and the medical trainees have returned to Saudi Arabia, and the patients yanked out of their sick beds to an uncertain fate, and the Saudi Arabian Airlines jets mothballed? But before that, we must ask the question: what happened to Canada’s friends and allies? All have been overcome by a deathly mutism. Certainly, none have come out openly to say that they agree with Canada that bad treatment of women and minorities is deplorable, and that Saudi Arabia needs to amend its behaviour. Some commentators supposedly in the know, imply that diplomats are operating behind the scenes where they deploy arcane skills to quieten Riyadh’s inflamed spirits. That may very well be so, but the outward silence still troubles, and one is tempted to conclude that the Saudis may have been given a green light by Donald Trump’s attitude to Canada. The once-simple and straightforward relationship between the USA and Canada has become somewhat complicated. Trump  describes Canada’s Prime Minister as “weak” and “dishonest”; he trash-talks the North American Free Trade Agreement and imposes tariffs on the country's exports of steel and aluminium to America. Could it be too, that Riyadh was given a more direct go-ahead by the White House to do its war dance to frighten Canada, some wonder.

         Canada’s other traditional ally, Britain, has its own self-inflicted troubles to manage and it may well have considered it unwise to provoke new troubles as it tries to find a way in the post-Brexit world it has chosen for itself.

         So, Canada stands alone and it may be best advised to sit tight and follow Benjamin Disraeli's dictum, paraphrased: Don’t complain, don’t explain.

Tell Fren Tru