Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics

 

Sierra Leone Ebola Cases to 12 January 2015

The picture above seems to be telling a new story.  Can we dare believe that Ebola numbers are beginning to level off? Is it premature to hope that the nightmare is about to end?  Or should we be more sceptical?

According to this picture, developed from the daily Ebola statistics released by the Sierra Leone Ministry of Health and Sanitation, new cases of Ebola are levelling off.  About time, we might say. This is has to be. Simply because, after nearly a year of recognizing that Ebola is present in Sierra Leone and elsewhere in the region, we should have learnt enough about it. Enough to provide a basis for moving forward: No cure for the disease exists. Therefore, the only way to bring the epidemic to an end is to stop person-to-person transmission. Simple enough in a disease that is transmitted by body contact. That knowledge alone is sufficient for us to be able to ditch any nonsense about "airborne transmission", a get-out-of-jail card for those who want to dodge basics such as hand- washing, a procedure that has a glorious place in the history of medicine. And not to talk of those who persist in other kinds of risky behaviour.

          Going back to those figures, I suppose one should be circumspect with this kind of "government issue" because of the tendency of governments to tell stories that make them look good, especially when they are beset by criticisms of incompetence or worse. And this government has had its share of both, so it would be hardly surprising if it is unable to resist the temptation. But we don’t really know... The alternative would be to turn to "independent" observers not limited by government restraints. Perhaps?  

Sky News Special Correspondent, Alex Crawford, has “witnessed the horrors of Ebola in a remote area of Sierra Leone”: http://news.sky.com/story/1406600/sky-witnesses-horrors-of-ebola-in-sierra-leone, contradicting the Ministry of Health's the more upbeat position.

And, not to be outdone, Fiona Keating, for the International Business Times, declares that “The Ebola crisis continues as 300 babies are buried a week”:   http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/sierra-leone-ebola-crisis-continues-300-babies-are-buried-week-1483265

However, the time frames for these two separate assertions are not referenced.

Anyway, Peter Penfold, a former British High Commissioner to Sierra Leone and one of the country’s BFF, in an article published online in African Arguments, on 13^th January, offers a glimmer, based on observations during a recent two-week visit to the country: http://africanarguments.org/2015/01/13/ebola-in-sierra-leone-news-from-the-frontline-by-peter-penfold/

          So, what is one to believe? I suppose time will tell. Biology tends to have its own dynamics with which man cannot tamper. This epidemic has shown us that in spades.

Tell Fren Tru